Hatsumōdë Survey 2026

Jinja Shinpō has once again conducted its annual survey of its correspondents, priests at jinja across Japan, to find out how hatsumōdë went, and to hear about other issues. The results were published in the March 9^th issue. This survey was started during the pandemic, but it seems that I am not the only one to find its results very interesting and useful. This year, there is no mention of the pandemic or of changes related to it, and so it seems to have become a regular annual event. I hope that it continues.

Jinja Shinpō received replies from 374 priests, which I think is nearly all of their correspondents. This covered a wide range of jinja. They were asked for the number of visitors the jinja gets over the first three days of a typical year, and 41 people (11.1%) said over 100,000. Another 82 said 10,000 to 100,000, so that means that over a third saw over 10,000 visitors in three days. This is not representative. Jinja Shinpō’s correspondents are biased towards larger jinja, partly because priests in general are more likely to serve at such places, and partly, I suspect, because priests at such jinja are more likely to have time to take on the extra responsibilities. At the other extreme, however, fourteen people (3.8%) said that they get fewer than fifty visitors.

They were also asked about the area where the jinja was located, and they could choose “city” (88, 23.6%), “suburb” (79, 21.2%), “rural” (119, 31.9%), or “depopulated” (87, 23.3%). “Depopulated” does not mean that no-one lives there, but rather that the population is low and falling, and that there are few young people. There is a technical legal definition, but the answers to this question depend on the priest’s subjective feeling.

The weather was generally good this year, but I will skip the detailed analysis of the results of that question. The next question was about how numbers of visitors had changed since last year. The most common single answer was “no change”, with 168 priests (45%). Thirty three (8.8%) reported a clear increase, while 91 (24.4%) reported a moderate increase. On the other hand, sixteen (4.3%) reported a clear decrease, and 65 (17.4%) a moderate decrease. Over all, the popularity of hatsumōdë as a custom is still high.

Some of the increases were for reasons specific to this year: it is the year of the horse, so jinja with equine connections saw more visitors than normal. Other jinja, however, reported an increase as a result of their efforts to build awareness of and connection to the jinja, such as by holding multiple traditional ceremonies over the year, by promoting the jinja on Instagram, or by renewing the precincts. Moderate increases were attributed to similar causes, with the addition of “nice weather”. The weather does make a noticeable difference, but it seems that it is not generally a large one.

Some of the “no change” answers meant exactly that: the priests said that the same people come every year. Others, however, masked significant changes that did not affect the numbers. A notable class of cases is areas where the local residents are aging, and local population is falling, but more people are coming to visit their parents at new year, and also visiting the jinja. Other priests saw an increasing local population, but less interest in visiting the jinja on the part of younger generations, leading to overall stability in the numbers.

One of the main reasons for reporting a reduction was bad weather. A few priests reported that young people were either losing their connection to jinja, or going to big famous jinja rather than their local one. However, the most common non-meteorological reason for a reduction seems to have been a fall in the local population. Of the sixteen priests who reported a clear decrease, ten were at jinja in depopulated areas.

While complacency is dangerous, it does look as though hatsumōdë is still broadly popular in Japan, and that the biggest reason for falling numbers is likely to be a falling population in the local area.

I will look at some of the other topics covered in the survey in the following posts.